SAWS alerts to ‘moderate’ Storm Guambe in Mozambique Channel

Posted on 19 February 2021

A tropical system named Guambe is developing in the Mozambique Channel. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) said current predictions indicate that the storm will have no negative impact on South Africa.

Guambe is expected to remain to the east of South Africa for its lifecycle.

‘As a Moderate Tropical Storm, Guambe is associated with sustained surface winds of the order of 63 to 89 km/h,’ said SAWS in a statement.

‘Whilst South Africa is unlikely to experience any negative impacts of Guambe, it is highly likely that a combination of torrential tropical rain and extensive flooding will affect an extensive part of the coast and adjacent interior of southern Mozambique, especially the region from Beira, through Vilanculos and southward to Inhambane.

Figure 1. A false colour RGB composite satellite image of southern Africa, Madagascar and the southern Indian Ocean region at
12h00SAST Wednesday 17 February 2021. Moderate Tropical Storm “Guambe” is visible as an impressive swirl of deep
convective cloud development, obscuring a large portion of the Mozambique Channel. Image courtesy EUMETSAT 2021

‘Moreover, destructive onshore winds and associated marine storm surge can also to be expected along the aforementioned coastline, with the coastal region between Xai-Xai and Inhambane likely to be affected by strong winds, wind damage and storm surge towards the coming weekend, when Guambe is expected to further intensify to Tropical Cyclone status, with sustained winds of 118 to 166km/h,’ the statement continued.

While it is unlikely that Guambe will affect South Africa, SAWS emphasised that with all tropical storms, there is a lot of uncertainty pertaining to accurate predictions.

‘Tropical systems are notoriously fickle and unpredictable, often exhibiting very erratic movement. Modern satellite remote sensing as well as advanced ensemble numeric modelling (NWP) techniques do, however, mitigate much of this uncertainty, at least in the short-term,’ said the statement.

SAWS have assured that the storm will be closely tracked and monitored for future movement and changes of Guambe and that timely updates will be issued if necessary.

Guambe’s expected lifecycle:

  • Over the next 4 to 5 days, the track which Guambe is likely to follow should be predominantly southwards, constrained within 36 to 38 degrees east longitude (as seen in Figure 2).
  • This predicted track should keep the system well to the east of South Africa throughout the lifetime of the system. Beyond this period, Guambe can typically be expected to accelerate in a south-easterly direction, ultimately being absorbed into the predominantly westerly airflow of the mid-latitudes.

 

Picture: Unsplash






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